Half of Britain Wants to Rejoin the EU – Burnham’s Biggest Political Gamble Yet

Ten years after Britain voted to leave the European Union, almost half the country now says it wants to go back.

A major new poll published on 3 October found that 49 per cent of voters support the UK rejoining the EU, compared with 28.5 per cent who oppose it.

The megapoll, conducted by the Messina Group between 12 and 24 September and involving 11,461 people, lands at an unusually consequential moment.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has just done something British prime ministers have largely avoided since Brexit: placed the possibility of EU membership openly back on the political table.

His argument is that Britain needs to reconsider its long term relationship with Europe. His challenge is that acknowledging the question is considerably easier than answering it.

The UK rejoin EU poll 2026 suggests the political ground has shifted. But it also shows why Burnham's decision could become one of the defining political calculations of his premiership.

Almost Half Now Back Rejoining

The headline figure is striking.

The Messina Group megapoll found 49 per cent support for Britain rejoining the European Union, with 28.5 per cent opposed.

The polling also examined timing. Just over a quarter, 25.9 per cent, favoured rejoining immediately, while another 22.9 per cent wanted Britain back inside the EU within three years. A further 8.4 per cent preferred doing so within a decade.

The findings are consistent with other polling showing that attitudes towards Brexit have moved substantially since the 2016 referendum.

An Ipsos survey published around the referendum's tenth anniversary found that 52 per cent of Britons thought the UK should apply to rejoin the EU, compared with 33 per cent who wanted to remain outside. Among those likely to participate in a hypothetical referendum, support for rejoining reached 58 per cent.

But there is an important qualification.

Polling by YouGov found 55 per cent supported rejoining in principle, but support fell to 35 per cent when respondents were asked about returning without the opt outs Britain previously enjoyed.

In other words, wanting a closer relationship with Europe and accepting the possible conditions of membership are not necessarily the same political proposition.

Burnham Has Reopened a Door Labour Had Closed

That complexity has not stopped Burnham from reopening the argument.

At Labour's conference, the Prime Minister said Brexit had done “more harm than good” and promised to consider Britain's long term relationship with its largest trading partner.

He subsequently went further.

Burnham outlined a spectrum of possibilities ranging from maintaining the current relationship to joining a customs union, entering the single market or, in his words, going “all the way” to full EU membership.

He has not committed the government to rejoining.

He has also said that another referendum would not be appropriate immediately, although he has acknowledged that one could potentially feature in a future Labour manifesto.

That distinction is crucial.

The Burnham EU debate is currently a review of Britain's options, not a government commitment to reverse Brexit.

Politically, however, merely putting full membership among those options changes the conversation.

Labour's Problem Is Inside the Party Too

The first obstacle may be Burnham's own government.

Senior Labour figures are reportedly divided over how far Britain should move towards Brussels.

Some ministers see economic and strategic advantages in a much closer relationship. Others are concerned about reopening the divisions of the Brexit years, particularly MPs representing constituencies where Leave won heavily in 2016.

Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has warned that reopening the membership question could create uncertainty for business. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander has said nobody wants to return to the “toxicity and divisions” of the earlier Brexit debate, while also accepting that Britain's long term relationship with Europe has to be discussed.

There is also the problem of Labour's previous commitments.

The party's 2024 manifesto ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market and the customs union, as well as restoring freedom of movement.

Burnham inherited those red lines. Reconsidering them may be politically possible, but doing so would require explaining why Labour's position has changed and what any replacement relationship would actually involve.

Rejoining Would Not Mean Reversing the Clock

There is another obstacle that polling cannot resolve: Britain could not simply restore its pre-2020 membership arrangements.

Any application would require negotiation with the EU and agreement among its member states.

Questions would inevitably arise around areas including freedom of movement, regulatory alignment, Britain's budget contribution and the special arrangements the UK previously held.

That is why headline polling on “rejoining” requires care.

Public support for the principle does not automatically demonstrate support for every set of terms under which membership might become available.

Burnham's government would eventually have to move from asking whether Britain wants a closer relationship to defining precisely what relationship it is prepared to negotiate.

Reform Sees an Opportunity

Burnham's opponents have wasted little time identifying the political risk.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has described the move as a “Brexit betrayal” and challenged Burnham to fight the issue in Leave voting areas, including parts of northern England.

The Conservatives have also accused the Prime Minister of reopening old divisions.

For Reform, the opportunity is obvious. A Labour government discussing EU membership gives the party a familiar argument around sovereignty, immigration and the democratic legitimacy of the 2016 referendum.

For Labour, however, the new megapoll points towards a different opportunity.

The Messina Group reportedly tested messages involving closer European ties and found Labour's vote share increasing by between 4.3 and 7.4 percentage points under different scenarios, with much of the additional support coming from voters who might otherwise support the Greens or Liberal Democrats.

Those figures describe responses within the poll's scenarios. They are not predictions of what would happen at a general election.

And that difference matters.

The Political Map Has Changed, but Not Simplified

Burnham is therefore confronting two Britains at once.

One increasingly believes Brexit has not produced the relationship with Europe it wants. The other remains deeply wary of reversing the decision made in 2016 or surrendering powers regained after leaving.

The dividing lines also remain pronounced.

Earlier Ipsos polling found particularly strong support for rejoining among younger people and Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green supporters. Conservative and Reform voters were substantially more likely to favour staying outside.

That means Europe could simultaneously help Labour consolidate voters on its progressive flank while creating vulnerabilities elsewhere.

There is no automatic political win hidden inside a 49 per cent polling figure.

Burnham Has Started a Debate He Will Eventually Have to Finish

The significance of the new polling is not that Britain has suddenly decided to reverse Brexit.

It hasn't.

What has changed is that full EU membership can no longer easily be dismissed as a fringe political proposition when roughly half of respondents in a major poll support it and the Prime Minister himself says it belongs among the options Britain should consider.

Burnham has created room for a debate previous governments tried to contain.

The strategic difficulty comes next.

He must determine what closer European integration would actually mean, whether Labour can remain united around it and whether voters who favour rejoining in principle would accept the compromises required in practice.

The UK rejoin EU poll 2026 shows that the political ground beneath Brexit has moved.

Burnham's gamble is believing Britain is ready to decide where it should move next.